Lula Mentira Dagobah

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A maior ameaça à democracia é a candidatura de Lula

Lula está tentando transformar verdade em mentira e mentira em verdade. Seu objetivo é um só: ganhar tempo para conseguir sair candidato a presidente em 2018.

Ele sabe que suas alegações são inverossímeis, mas não está nem um pouco preocupado com isso. Vejamos.

Quem pode acreditar que muitos ex-amigos de Lula fizeram uma conspiração para entregá-lo à justiça?

Empresários, correligionários, amigos pessoais mesmo (de mais de 30 anos) – todo mundo estaria confessando falsamente que Lula é o responsável pelo esquema criminoso ou tinha comando sobre as operações ilegais, só para sair da cadeia ou reduzir suas penas? E os documentos, planilhas, anotações em agendas, computadores, celulares, registros telefônicos, fotos de câmera de segurança – tudo isso também foi forjado para corroborar as mentiras?

E foram todos coagidos ou levados a fazer isso pelos procuradores da força tarefa da Lava Jato e pelo juiz Moro?

Emílio Odebrecht foi coagido? Não parecia, tão sorridente estava nos vídeos de seus depoimentos. Leo Pinheiro, velho financiador de Lula (inclusive de quando ele ainda nem era presidente), estava constrangido, depondo como quem confessa sob tortura? Também não pareceu. Marcelo Odebrecht e todos os executivos da sua empresa estavam obrigados, declarando sob vara,  a dizer o que os procuradores queriam ouvir? E os executivos da OAS que declararam a mesma coisa? Foi tudo armado? E o Duque do PT na Petrobrás, indicado por Dirceu, só disse mentiras (aliás, sem nem mesmo ter concluído um acordo de delação premiada)?

Mais ainda: como os depoimentos dessa multiplicidade de pessoas se encaixam, eles combinaram tudo antes, decoraram e ensaiaram o script? Como isso seria possível, se vários dos que estão presos não se comunicam? Deltan e sua turma maligna distribuíram roteiros, contrataram um diretor de ator para cada um e um diretor geral para montar tudo?

Por que pessoas que eram praticamente da cozinha de Lula aceitaram representar esses papeis? Elas foram torturadas? Há indícios de tortura física ou psicológica? As famílias desses colaboradores da justiça (que fizeram delação premiada ou apenas deram depoimentos incriminando Lula) estão sabendo de toda a operação tenebrosa e guardando segredo?

E por que os jovens procuradores da República que atuam na força tarefa e o juiz Moro fariam tudo isso (induzir e falsificar depoimentos, forjar documentos, registros e outras provas materiais)? Eles estão sendo orientados por alguma potência nacional ou estrangeira? Eles são da CIA? Eles fazem tudo isso apenas por ódio do cara que permitiu que pobre fizesse faculdade e andasse de avião? Mas se eles fizeram tudo isso não deveriam estar presos ou pelo menos sendo investigados por outras instâncias? Uma armação desse porte já não seria difícil numa ditadura (por exemplo, no grande expurgo stalinista), quanto mais na vigência de um Estado democrático de direito?

Quem, em sã consciência, pode acreditar nisso?

É fácil responder. Militantes podem acreditar. Um militante do PT acredita, assim como um militante do Hamas ou do Talibã também acreditariam. Porque um militante não pode mais ser incomodado pela verdade. Na cabeça do militante, não importa o que Lula fez e sim o que os inimigos estão fazendo com ele. Numa guerra, não existe uma verdade: existem apenas narrativas em confronto. A narrativa do inimigo é sempre falsa para que a minha narrativa seja verdadeira (por mais implausível que ela seja). Do contrário o inimigo (no caso, as elites, os exploradores do povo) prevalecerá (contra o povo). A justeza da causa é o critério da verdade, não os fatos.

Mas a grande questão é: os sistemas jurídicos e políticos, os meios de comunicação, as instituições da sociedade, a opinião pública e as pessoas comuns podem acreditar nisso?

Se for possível que isso aconteça e Lula consiga se candidatar às eleições de 2018, então é sinal de que o país foi definitivamente capturado por uma organização criminosa. Não haverá mais lei, nem justiça – e, a rigor, não estaremos mais em um Estado democrático de direito.

Sim, é muito mais grave do que em geral se imagina. Uma candidatura de Lula – permitida e abençoada pelo establishment – será o sinal de que entramos naquela zona cinzenta na qual será difícil classificar o regime como uma democracia, nem mesmo como uma democracia tão flawed como a nossa.

Não é somente, nem principalmente, de Lula que se trata aqui, mas de um sistema que apodreceu ou foi apodrecido a tal ponto de permitir que um bandido político, que também cometeu inumeráveis crimes comuns, dispute a chefia do governo e do Estado (com chances reais de ganhar o pleito). Se isso acontecer, é sinal de que todos os mecanismos de controle do regime democrático falharam, que o sistema imunológico da democracia não está mais funcionando corretamente. E se o chefe da organização criminosa for eleito, aí então nossa democracia colapsará de vez, acometida por doença autoimune. O que virá depois não se pode saber exatamente, mas o país entrará em ritmo acelerado de autocratização, virará uma protoditadura lulopetista (a versão brasileira dos regimes bolivarianos).

As pessoas, como sempre, não estão vendo claramente esse cenário futuro. Mas é preciso tê-lo em mente como uma das possibilidades, até para saber o que está em jogo neste momento em que Lula – transformando verdade em mentira e mentira em verdade – tenta incriminar Moro, Deltan e os demais membros da força tarefa da Lava Jato: como se eles, e não ele (Lula), fossem os bandidos.

Wishful thinking não ajuda em nada. Achar que Lula não será candidato porque antes vai ser preso por Moro, não ajuda em nada (além do que é um pensamento pouco democrático na medida em que tenta fazer política com a justiça – quando a única saída política não pode vir da política, mas tem que ser fornecida supletivamente pela justiça, é sinal de que há poucas esperanças para a democracia). Sim, Lula pode ser preso por Moro e logo em seguida solto pelo Tribunal Regional Federal de Porto Alegre ou, mesmo, pelo STF (onde a metade dos membros seria favorável a conceder-lhe um Habeas Corpus). Lula, pode ser absolvido em segunda instância (no TRF4) por falta de provas. Ou o julgamento de Lula em segunda instância pode demorar tanto a ponto de ele não perder sua elegibilidade para 2018. Ou seja, não há nada que possa ser garantido apenas pelo judiciário.

Depois da ofensiva do establishment para barrar a Lava Jato – tendo a frente dirigentes de quase todos os partidos, grandes empresários (incluindo os grandes bancos) e até ministros da Suprema Corte, como Gilmar Mendes, seus colegas petistas e seus lacaios na imprensa – não se pode ter certeza de nada. Não há mais leis cuja aplicação seja inequívoca. Há uma guerra de interpretações e essa guerra não é propriamente jurídica e sim política. O mais provável é que, se as ruas não voltarem a falar, Lula sairá candidato (e com chances de vencer a disputa).

Para a democracia, o ponto de virada é a elegibilidade de Lula (ou seja, ele poder sair candidato, a despeito de tudo que fez e continua fazendo para melar os processos judiciais em que é réu, para obstruir as investigações, para instalar o caos nas ruas, para sabotar o regime democrático). Neste exato momento, nem é tão importante especular se ele sairia vitorioso em 2018 ou se seria rechaçado pela população nas urnas (novamente wishful thinking). O fato de ele conseguir registrar sua candidatura à presidência do Brasil é o coração do problema, pois uma vez agarrando a tábua de salvação do palanque de 2018, ficará imensamente mais difícil – em termos sociais e institucionais – evitar sua fuga para frente, escorregando por dentro da carcaça podre do sistema.

Mas é bom anotar. Um terceiro mandato de Lula não poderá mais se exercer nos marcos da democracia (não, pelo menos, como a conhecemos no Brasil nos últimos 30 anos).

 

 

 

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