Temer

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A temerária auto-armadilha

Se Temer quisesse ter um papel relevante na história deveria – além de cuidar da política econômica, corrigindo os desastres do PT – ter se dedicado à transição democrática, despetizando completamente o Estado (o que não ocorreu) e expondo ao país tudo que o partido fez em 13 anos, criando condições políticas e conquistando amplo apoio da opinião pública para o desvendamento e o desbaratamento da organização criminosa. Veja aqui as consequências trágicas de uma transição incompleta.

Poderia, ademais, fazer uma pauta das reformas necessárias, até mesmo iniciar algumas, para entregar o legado a um sucessor que não fosse do campo do PT, para que este, sim, pudesse enfrentar, em melhores condições, os desafios das reformas fundamentais (política, tributária ou fiscal, previdenciária, trabalhista, federativa etc.).

Mas não! Ele resolveu dar uma de grande estadista e quis fazer, no peito e em 2 anos, reformas altamente impopulares que o sistema político não foi capaz de fazer em 20 anos. Uma iniciativa muito temerária (com e sem trocadilho).

Como a transição ficou incompleta, a organização criminosa, que continuou praticamente intacta, aproveitou a oportunidade para orquestrar as corporações e os ditos movimentos sociais contra as reformas. Resultado: o PT, que havia sido derrotado nas mídias, no parlamento, nas urnas e nas ruas, está recobrando as ruas, manipulando facilmente interesses privados de indivíduos contra o interesse público.

Foi assim que Temer construiu para si mesmo sua… temerária armadilha: se aprova as reformas que pretende, contará com forte oposição social (que não havia ou estava acuada e desmobilizada e que agora pode ressuscitar e apoiar um candidato do campo do PT em 2018) e, se não aprova, perderá o apoio dos setores produtivos e da chamada classe média que entendem a necessidade das reformas. Sem esses apoios, Temer perderá, inclusive, seu único trunfo atual: a numerosa base congressual.

Temer avalia que não precisa de popularidade, já que não é candidato em 2018. Mas ocorre que popularidade não se reduz à intenções de voto. Abaixo de um nível mínimo (em torno de 10%), qualquer governante perde as condições de governar. Segundo o levantamento da Ipsos, publicado pelo Valor, 87% dos brasileiros desaprovam o presidente da República e apenas 10% o aprovam. Bateu no limite. Quem se animará a investir num governo com tamanho rechaço do população, a não ser os seus integrantes (muitos dos quais sob a mira da polícia e da justiça).

Para piorar o quadro, os que depuseram Dilma não vão voltar às ruas para defender as reformas de Temer. Podem voltar por outros motivos, quem sabe até contra ele e sua base de apoio ou contra todo o sistema político (criando condições para que um aventureiro empalme o poder no ano que vem ou, desgraçadamente, para a volta do PT ao governo). Sim, independentemente da ação do judiciário, os eleitores podem ficar no dilema de votar em alguém do PT – ou apoiado pelo PT – para evitar a eleição de algum maluco autocrata como Bolsonaro.

E aí será o pior dos mundos. Caso o PT volte ao governo, retomará seu projeto neopopulista (lulopetista mesmo sem Lula, a variante brasileira do bolivarianismo). Não só todos os criminosos serão soltos (aliás, já começaram a ser) ou serão absolvidos em segunda ou terceira instâncias, mas nós, que denunciamos a organização criminosa, seremos perseguidos.

A única saída será o aeroporto.

 

 

 

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