Vamos tentar cotejar dois rankings sobre democracia com quatro rankings (supostamente) correlatos: sobre competitividade, fragilidade estatal, conflitos e governança e valores culturais. O objetivo é verificar se há – e se houver, qual o tipo de – correlação entre diferentes índices de democratização e índices que medem esses diversos outros fatores. A hipótese inicial de trabalho é que países mais democráticos tendem a ser mais socialmente cooperativos e economicamente competitivos, menos frágeis ou instáveis, menos vulneráveis a conflitos ou mais pacíficos, com melhor governança e com predominância de valores racionais sobre valores tradicionais e de valores de auto-expressão sobre valores de sobrevivência.
O grande problema desses estudos que geram rankings da democracia (e correlatos) é o seguinte: a democracia realmente existente na atualidade é a democracia reinventada pelos modernos como democracia representativa. O problema é que ela é coetânea à construção da forma Estado-nação. E como o Estado (qualquer forma de Estado) é um fruto da guerra (no caso do Estado-nação, da paz de Westfália), a democracia acabou servindo como modo de administração política de uma estrutura geneticamente guerreira, para tentar mitigar o Leviatã com a fórmula do Estado democrático de direito. Então qual é realmente o problema? O problema é que a democracia não deveria valer apenas para isso, para domesticar Estados. A democracia é um processo de desconstituição de autocracia onde quer que ela se manifeste (nas famílias, escolas, igrejas, corporações sindicais, organizações sociais, quartéis, universidades, empresas – além, é claro, de órgãos estatais). Ademais, não é só o Estado que é ou não é democrático em alguma medida e sim também as demais estruturas sociais. Ou medimos tudo isso, ou não medimos o que realmente importa: em que medida comportamentos que refratam a regulação de conflitos de modo mais autocrático do que democrático se reproduzem na sociedade.
OS MATERIAIS SÃO OS SEGUINTES
M1 Democracy Index 2015 EIU – The Economist Intelligence Unit m1-democracy-index-2015-eiu
M2 Freedom in the World 2016 FH – Freedom House m2-freedom-in-the-world-2016-fh-freedom-house
M3 The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017 WEF – World Economic Forum m3-the-global-competitiveness-report-2016-2017-wef
M4 Fragile States Index 2016 FFP – Fund for Peace m4-fragile-states-index-2016-ffp
M5 Global Report 2014 Conflict, Govenance and State Fragility CSP – Center for Systemic Peace m5-global-report-2014-csp-center-for-systemic-peace
M6 Ingelhart-Welzel Cultural Map of the World | WVS – World Values Survey
Todos os textos acima estão em PDF (com exceção de M6). Há versões disponíveis em Word para quem vai trabalhar com as tabelas.
Sobre M1 há um resumo publicado aqui: Democracy Index 2015
Sobre M2 há um resumo publicado aqui: Freedom in the World 2016
Sobre M6 há um artigo publicado aqui: Cultura e Democracia
Ainda sobre M6 há aqui um relatório da pesquisa: m6-world-values-survey-2010-2014-wvs
Está em discussão se devemos agregar rankings que importam indicadores econômicos (como o GDP per Capita do Banco Mundial ou mesmo como o IDH Global do PNUD). Sabe-se que são complicados esses contrabandos econômicos em cruzamentos políticos, mas a rigor já estamos importando variáveis extra-políticas com outros levantamentos (sobretudo o M6).
O GDP per capita do Banco Mundial pode ser baixado aqui (planilha): m-gdp-per-capita-banco-mundial
O Relatório de Desenvolvimento Humano IDH Global 2015 do PNUD pode ser baixado aqui (PDF): relatorio-desenvolvimento-humano-2014-idh-global-pnud Ressalte-se que o IDH é muito problemático: não há qualquer racionalidade em misturar renda, expectativa de vida e escolaridade. Ademais, a classificação é demagógica (talvez para não aborrecer os governos de países em desenvolvimento dos quais a burocracia do PNUD preci$a). Desenvolvimento humano (vá-la) altíssimo deveria ser acima de 0,85; alto acima de 0,80; médio acima de 0,7 e abaixo disso seria baixo e baixíssimo.
De qualquer modo, fica faltando um ranking de desenvolvimento social propriamente dito, quer dizer, algum levantamento que meça o capital social.
Deve-se levar em conta as compilações e considerações analíticas feitas por Max Rosen em Democracia (e verificar quais as bases de dados que ele apreciou deveriam ser incorporadas).
A lista elaborada pelo Democracy Barometer é muito importante (ver abaixo):
DATA SOURCES AND OTHER INCIDES
List of data sources thematically related to the Democracy Barometer and cover a large number of countries and years.
Additional democracy and governance measures
Human rights and individual liberties
Elections and directdemocracy
Freedom of press and media systems
Comparative data on constituions
Cross-disciplinar comparative comparative datasets and databanks
ADDITIONAL DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE MEASURES
BTI – Bertelsmann Transformations Index:
Index developed by the Bertelsmann Foundation on the political and economic development status of 120 countries in transition (2003-2010).
Democracy index based on political (among others Frredom House, CPI) and socioeconmic factors. Available for 100 countries between 2008 and 2010.
Qualitative appraisal of the democratic quality and the human rights in several countries. Democratic Audit is an independent research group at the University of Liverpool.
Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index:
Democracy index developed on the basis of expert evaluations of 60 factors from five areas (election process, civil rights, government capability, participation and political culture) in 167 countriesin the years 2006, 2008 and 2010).
Freedom House: Freedom in the World Reports:
Ratings on the guarantee of politicla rights and civil rights in all countries worldwide. Data available from 1972 onward and yearly updated. Well-established rating developed by the American NGO “Freedom House”.
NID: Neuer Index der Demokratie:
New democracy measure developed by Hans-Joachim Lauth (University of Würzburg) based on the combination of constituent parts of the Freedom House, Polity and WGI indices. Data is available for 60 countries since 1996 on a two year basis.
Classification of political systems on a scale between the two extremes autocracy and democracy. Yearly updated data available for all countries worldwide from 1800 onwards. One of the most used democracy measures, it is compiled at the Colorado State University.
Democracy index based on Robert Dahl’s (1971) concept of polyarchy. Developed by Michael Coppedge (University of Notre Dame) and Wolfgang Reinicke (Global Public Policy Institute) the index is available for all countries worldwide for the time span 1985-2000.
SGI – Bertelsmann Sustainable Governance Index:
Index on the democracy level, the economic capability and the welfare state in 31 OECD countries. Developed by the Bertelsmann foundation, the index is available for the years 2009 and 2011.
UDS – Unified Democracy Scores:
Democracy measure developed by James Melton (IMT Lucca) and his team, it combines measures from 12 existent democracy measures (among others Freedom House, Polity, Polyarchy, Vanhanen). Available for all the countries worldwide between 1946 and 2008.
Vanhanen’s Index of Democracy:
Democracy index developed on the basis of the polyarchy dimensions competition and participation proposed by Robert Dahl (1971). The index relies on election statistics worldwide (1810-200) and was developed by Tatu Vanhanen (University of Tampere).
Ratings on 11 different democracy components developed on the basis of evaluations by national experts. Available for all countries worldwide from 1900 onwards, the index was developed by the University of Gothenburg.
WGI – Worldwide Governance Indicators (Weltbank):
Indices for six governance dimensions based on the combination of data from a broad array of data sources. Available for 213 countries in the time span 1996-2009.
Amnesty International – Human Rights Reports:
Yearly reports on the human rights situation in all countries worldwide.
CIRI Human Rights Data Project:
Quantitative data on the effective guarantee of 15 human rights in 195 countries between 1981 and 2009. The measures were developed by David L. Cingarelli (Binghamton University) and David L. Richards (University of Connecticut).
HDR – Human Development Reports (UNDP):
Various data on the socioeconomic development status of all countries worldwide. Provided by the United Nations, the HDR-data are available in yearly reports from 1990 onwards and partially since 1960 (online databank). Further, the HDR features additional indices, among others the Human Development Index (HDI), the Gender Innequality Inedx (GII) and the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI).
MAR – Minorities at Risk Project:
Quantitative and qualitative data on the composition, the political and legal situation and the conflict potential of discriminated and/or politically active minorities in all countries worldwide with a population of at least 500’000 inhabitants. The data is available between 1945 and 2006 and was collected by the University of Maryland.
PITF -Political Instability Task Force / State Failure Project:
Several datasets about internal conflicts, state failure and genocides in all countries worldwide in the time span 1995-2010. The data was collected at the George Mason University.
Political Terror Scale:
The index developed by Mark Gibney (University of North Carolina) and colleagues measures the degree of political violence and repression. The measures are based on the yearly reports by Amnesty International and the U.S. Department of State and are available from 1976 onwards.
RAS – Religion and State Project:
Data on the relationship between religion and state (including the discrimination of religious groups) for all countries worldwide in the time span 1990-2002. The measures were developed at the Bar Ilan University.
UNODC – United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime:
Several criminal statistics for all countries worlwide (1970-2008).
ACE Electoral Knowledge Network:
Qualitative information about elections, electoral systems, direct democracy and parties for all countries worldwide. ACE is a combined initiative by nine IGOs and INGOs.
CSES – Comparative Study of Electoral Systems:
International comparative election study consisting of three elements: 1) Post-election surveys; 2) Elections statistics on district level; 3) Elections results and system on national level. Available for approximately 30 countries in the time span 1996-2011; the data is collected by the universities of the specific countries.
DPI – Database of Political Institutions (Weltbank):
Data on the election system, federalism, the composition of the government as well as on the votes and seats distribution in all countries worldwide betwwen 1975 and 2009.
Direct Democracy Database (C2D):
Databank with detailed information on direct democratic insitutions and all popular votes held at the national, subnational and local level for all countries worldwide. The datank was developed at the Centre for Democracy Studies Aarau (ZDA).
Direct Democracy (IDEA):
A worldwide comparison of direct democratic instruments and mechanisms in the form of a handook edited by the IGO “international IDEA”.
Developed by Manuel Alvarez, it contains results from local and national elections as well as qualitative information on the electoral and party system of most of the countries worldwide. The starting year may vary depending on the specific country, usually in 1980s.
Electoral System Design Project:
Data on all elections held as well as on the electoral and party systems and various socioeconomic factors in 81 countries(1945-2006). Developed by John Carey (Dartmouth College) and Simon Hix (London School of Economics).
Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU): Parline Database und Women in Parliaments:
Two databanks by the Inter-Parlamentary Union (IPU): 1) Election results since the 1970s and information about electoral systems and the composition of parliaments worldwide (Parline); 2) Women’s share in parliaments in all countries worldwide since 1997 (Women in Parliaments).
Data on the political position of parties based on a qualitative content analysis of party manifestos in 50 countries since 1945. Developed at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung.
Psephos Adam Carr’s Election Archive:
Elections results from 182 countries, collected by Adam Carr. The data availability varies between countries, usually available from the 1990s onwards.
QuotaProject – Global Database of Quotas for Women:
Worldwide information on parliamentary and party women’s quota. Joint initiative by the International IDEA and the University of Stockholm.
Voter Turnout Database (IDEA):
Worldwide turnout rates of parliamentary and presidential elections from 1945 onwards.
Freedom of Information (Privacy International):
Graph and report on the existence, history and extent of legal provisions for freedom of information. Data covers approximately 140 countries and is collected by the British NGO “Privacy International”.
Global Integrity Report:
Qualitative and quantitative expert evaluations of about 300 transparency, media freedom and de jure and de facto (anti-)corruption related factors. The data is collected by the INGO “Global Integrity” since 2004 and covers 30-60 transition countries (depending on the year).
Political Finance Database (IDEA):
Informatin about election campaign and party financing worldwide.
Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) und Bribe Payers’ Index (BPI):
Research initiative by the INGO “Transparency International”. The data covers three topics: 1) Corruption index for 150-180 countries since 1995 (CPI); 2) Surveys on the public perception and the daily experience with corruption in 60-90 countries since 2003 (GCR); 3) Index on the willingness of national companies and corporations to pay bribes; available for 22 countries in the years 1999, 2002, 2006 and 2008 (BPI).
Freedom House – Freedom of the Press Index:
Media freedom index: worlwide collected data yearly updated since 1980.
ICT Database (ITU):
Contains data on the distribution of information and communication technologies provided by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Data is available for all countries worldwide since 1960 (yearly updates from 1975 onwards, partially subject to charges).
RSF – Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index:
Qualitative information and quantitative index on media freedom compiled by the INGO “Reporters Without borders”. Available for 140-180 countries from 2002 onwards, yearly updated.
Press and broadcast related statistics (circulation and number of newspapers, radio and television stations). Provided by the UNESCO, the data cover all the countries worldwide and are available from 1975 onwards, however, a lot of data is missing.
World Press Trends (WAN):
Fee required press statistics (circulation, reach, consumption, advertisement and number of newspapers) provided by the INGO “World Assciation of Newspapers”. Statistics are available for all the countries worldwide in the form of handbooks since 1993 and since 2000 in the form of an online databank.
Global Competitiveness Report (WEF):
Fee required data on the economic competitiveness and the quality of public authorities in 133 countries. The information is collected by means of surveys of business executives and is available from 1979 onwards.
ICRG – International Country Risk Guide:
Political, economic and financial risk assessment performed by the private PRS Group. The data is available from 1984 onwards, covers 140 countries but a fee is required. The political factors considered cover corruption, internal and external conflicts, democratic accountability and law and order.
World Competitiveness Yearbook (IMD):
Country ratings developed by the International Institute for Management (IMD) in Lausanne based on 331 factors from the areas economic performance, governmental capability and infrastructure. The yearly ratings cover 59 countries and are available from 1989 onwards.
Economic Freedom of the World (Fraser Institute):
Collection of approxiamately 30 indicators from various data sources on the effective guarantee of property rights, freedom of trade and the regulation of the financial and labour market. The data is collected by the economically liberal Canadian think tank “Fraser Institute” and covers approximately 140 countries from 1970 onwards (since 2000 collected on a yearly basis).
Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation):
Economic freedom index developed by the liberal conservative American think tank “Heritage Foundation” based on 10 components (including the effective guarantee of property rights and freedom from corruption). The yearly collected and computed index covers approximately 180 countries and is available from 1995 onwards.
CCP – Comparative Constitutions Project:
Data and information on the formal characteristics and content of constitutions for the vast majority of the independent states worldwide since 1789. Developed by Zachary Elkins (University of Texas) and Tom Ginsburg (University of Chicago) in collaboration with the Cline Center for Democracy (University of Illinois).
Democracy Assistance Project (USAID):
More than 500 indicators on the American foreign aid and the constitutional provision of various basic rights. Additionally, a vast array of secondary data on the rule of law and socioeconomic factors is available. The data covers information from approximately 190 countries and the time span 1990-2007. The project is administered and developed by Steve E. Finkel (University of Pittsburgh) and colleagues.
CSES- Comparative Study of Electoral Systems:
EES – European Election Study:
ESS – European Social Survey:
Gallup World Poll:
ISSP – International Social Survey Programme:
LAPOP – Latin American Public Opinion Project:
WVS – World Value Survey:
Comparative Political Data Sets (Armingeon):
Secondary data on the political, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of 23 OECD countries from 1960 to 2008 released by Klaus Armingeon (University of Bern) and colleagues.
Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive (Banks):
Cost charged data for approximately 200 indicators covering all countries worldwide, available from 1815 onwards.
Democracy Cross-National Data und Democracy Time-Series Data (Norris):
Secondary data for approximately 500 indicators on the political, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of countries worldwide between 1972 and 2004. Released by Pippa Norris (Harvard University).
EU – Eurostat:
various statistics on European countries’ population, trade, environment and science, partially since 1960.
Secondary data on approximately 600 indicators, mostly on socioeconomic, ecnomic and infrastructure characteristics for 200 countries, partially since 1800. The project offers the possibility to graphically represent or store the data.
Various statistics on popoluations, trade, environment, economics and science for OECD countries and sometimes additional countries, partially since the 1950s
QoG Institute – Quality of Government Data and Quality of Government Social Policy Data:
The project comprises altogether five datasets with secondary data on a vast array of political, institutional, economic and socioeconomic areas of interest. The datasets covers, depending on the year of enquiry, between 600 and 5’500 indicators, 40 to 207 countries and the time span 1946-2010. The information and data are assembled by the Quality of Government Institute of the University of Gothenburg.
Various statistics provided by United Nations’ sub-organizations covering more than 200 countries.
Numerous statistics (approximately 300 indicators) for more than 200 countries, data available from 1960 onwards.
Há um grupo fechado no Facebook para tratar do assunto. Chama-se PROJETO DEMOCRACIA.