cultura-e-dmoecracia

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Cultura e democracia

Um mapa cultural não consegue fugir muito de qualquer mapa da democracia (ou da autocracia)

Vamos dividir o Ingelhart-Welzel Cultural Map of the World em quadrantes, com o objetivo de verificar se há correlação entre o índice de democratização e a predominância de valores racionais sobre valores tradicionais e de valores de auto-expressão sobre valores de sobrevivência.

mapa-cultural

Como se pode constatar, no quadrante D só temos países democráticos e no quadrante A temos, em ampla maioria, ditaduras. É só uma pista para ulterior desenvolvimento.

Colocamos os quadrantes a partir dos zeros vertical e horizontal, quer dizer, do ponto em que valores tradicionais e de auto-expressão (no eixo x) e de sobrevivência e racionais (no eixo y) estavam equilibrados. Isso mostrou ter significado em comparação com os índices de democratização. Mas não cremos que haja uma correspondência inequívoca com as religiões (por exemplo, a resiliência do confucionismo em realidades políticas tão distintas como a da China e a do Japão já seria suficiente para bagunçar tal interpretação); ou, se houver, ela não revela uma relação unívoca de causa-efeito. Há, ademais, várias questões não-resolvidas; por exemplo, o islamismo levou à autocracia ou só pôde se instalar nos países que depois foram considerados islâmicos (sobretudo do Oriente Médio) em razão do alto grau de autocratização que já havia na região (por razões diversas, extra-religiosas)? Se queremos usar a cultura como chave interpretativa a única distinção relevante, a meu ver, é a incidência da cultura patriarcal (onde ela se reproduziu, houve hierarquização-autocratização, mas como isso foi em quase todo lugar, dessa distinção dificilmente sairá um critério utilizável).

Preliminarmente, vamos agora superpor os mapas da democracia da Freedom House e da The Economist Intelligence Unit ao mapa Ingelhart-Welzel. Leiam o artigo e consultem o site.

WHAT THE WORLD VALUES, IN ONE CHART

By Brandon Ambrosino, Vox, Dec 29, 2014

“The more globalized our world becomes, the more we learn about similarities and differences that cut across all cultures.

These things are sometimes easy to trace on a small scale. For instance, it’s easy to chart the religious differences between, say, Indonesia and China. In 2000, 98 percent of Indonesians said religion was important to them compared to just 3 percent of Chinese citizens who said the same thing, according to WVS. But not every cultural comparison is that easy to make.

Two professors, however, are finding ways to compare how our values differ on a global scale.

Using data from the World Values Survey (WVS), professors Ronald Inglehart of the University of Michigan and Christian Welzel of Leuphana University created this amazing Cultural Map of the World.

Values survey

The Ingelhart-Welzel Cultural Map of the World. (NB: the green cluster in the center of the map is unmarked, but is labeled South Asian.)

What you’re seeing is a scatter plot charting how values compare across nine different clusters (English-speaking, Catholic Europe, Islamic, etc.). The y-axis tracks traditional values, versus secular-rational values.

What do those terms mean? According to WVS, traditional values (the bottom of the y-axis) emphasize religion, traditional family values, parent-child ties, and nationalism. Those with these values tend to reject abortion, euthanasia, and divorce. On the other hand, those with secular rational values (the top of the y-axis) place less preference on religion and traditional authority, and are more accepting of abortion and divorce.

The x-axis tracks survival values versus self-expression values. Survival values emphasize economic and physical security and are linked with ethnocentrism and low levels of tolerance. Self-expression values, according to WVS, “give high priority to environmental protection, growing tolerance of foreigners, gays and lesbians and gender equality, and rising demands for participation in decision-making in economic and political life.”

WVS offers this admittedly simplified analysis of the plot:

“… following an increase in standards of living, and a transit from development country via industrialization to post-industrial knowledge society, a country tends to move diagonally in the direction from lower-left corner (poor) to upper-right corner (rich), indicating a transit in both dimensions.

However, the attitudes among the population are also highly correlated with the philosophical, political and religious ideas that have been dominating in the country. Secular-rational values and materialism were formulated by philosophers and the left-wing politics side in the French revolution, and can consequenlty be observed especially in countries with a long history of social democratic or socialistic policy, and in countries where a large portion of the population have studied philisophy and science at universities. Survival values are characteristic for eastern-world countries and self-expression values for western-world countries. In a liberal post-industrial economy, an increasing share of the population has grown up taking survival and freedom of thought for granted, resulting in that self-expression is highly valued”.

The map, known as the Inglehart-Welzel map, was published in 2010, and was based on data published by the WVS between 1995 and 2009. The WVS “is the largest non-commercial, cross-national, time series investigation of human beliefs and values ever executed,” according to its website. It’s been around since 1981 and has surveyed over 400,000 respondents in more than 100 countries”.

CRUZANDO DADOS

Para a Freedom House, devem ser considerados livres, com o grau máximo de Direitos Políticos e Liberdades Civis (1 | 1) os seguintes países (em ordem alfabética):

Alemanha
Andorra
Austrália
Áustria
Bahamas
Barbados
Bélgica
Canadá
Cabo Verde
Chile
Costa Rica
Chipre
Dinamarca
Eslováquia
Eslovênia
Espanha
Estados Unidos
Estônia
Finlândia
França
Holanda
Ilhas Marshall
Islândia
Irlanda
Itália
Japão
Kiribati
Liechtenstein
Lituânia
Luxemburgo
Malta
Micronésia
Nova Zelândia
Noruega
Palau
Polônia
Portugal
Reino Unido
República Checa
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
São Vicente e Granada
San Marino
Suécia
Suiça
Tuvalu
Uruguai

Para a EIU, são democracias plenas (Full Democracies), considerando os indicadores adotados (Processo Eleitoral e Pluralismo, Funcionamento do Governo, Participação Política, Cultura Política e Liberdades Civis) os seguintes países (ordenados pelo overall score acima de 8):

Noruega
Islândia
Suécia
Nova Zelândia
Dinamarca
Suíça
Canadá
Finlândia
Austrália
Holanda
Luxemburgo
Irlanda
Alemanha
Áustria
Malta
Reino Unido
Espanha
Ilhas Maurício
Uruguai
Estados Unidos

Embora não se possa comparar rankings elaborados com critérios distintos, para efeitos demonstrativos um cruzamento dos países livres (FH) com as democracias plenas (EIU) e com as Flawed Democracies (com score acima de 7, também no relatório do EIU) geram a lista (até certo ponto aborrecidamente repetitiva) de países considerados “satisfatoriamente” democráticos (excluindo-se os países muito pequenos, como as ilhas e outros, com exceção de Malta e Chipre):

01. Alemanha ||
02. Austrália ||
03. Áustria ||
04. Bélgica |||
05. Cabo Verde |||
06. Canadá ||
07. Chile |||
08. Chipre |||
09. Costa Rica |||
10. Dinamarca ||
11. Eslováquia |||
12. Eslovênia |||
13. Espanha ||
14. Estados Unidos ||
15. Estônia |||
16. Finlândia ||
17. França |||
18. Holanda ||
19. Irlanda ||
20. Islândia ||
21. Itália |||
22. Japão |||
23. Lituânia |||
24. Luxemburgo ||
25. Malta ||
26. Noruega ||
27. Nova Zelândia ||
28. Polônia |||
29. Portugal |||
30. Reino Unido ||
31. República Checa |||
32. Suécia ||
33. Suíça ||
34. Uruguai ||

Na lista acima temos os países plenamente livres (FH), marcadas com duas barras verticais (||) as full democracies e com três barras verticais (|||) as flawed democracies (EIU) que se aproximam dos primeiros.

Sim, podemos dizer, em “cognição sumária” (hehehe, está na moda), que temos menos de 40 democracias (34) vigentes em Estados-nações que “deram certo”. A constatação mais óbvia é que menos da metade da população mundial vive sob regimes livres e apenas 8,9% em democracias plenas. Na outra ponta, 34,1 (EIU) a 36% (FH) da população mundial vivem sob regimes autoritários ou não-livres (o que pode chegar a 2.611.399.627 de pessoas ou talvez mais, em dados colhidos em 2014-2015).

A FH considera 195, enquanto que o EIU apenas 167 países (Estados-nações), mas essa diferença só incide sobre os pequenos países que excluímos para efeitos da presente comparação demonstrativa.

Os tais pequenos países, plenamente democráticos (segundo os critérios da FH e da EIU, quer dizer, da democracia representativa) seriam os seguintes:

Andorra
Bahamas
Barbados
Cabo Verde
Chipre
Ilhas Marshall
Mauricio
Islândia
Kiribati
Liechtenstein
Luxemburgo
Malta
Micronésia
Palau
Santa Lúcia
São Vicente e Granadinas
São Marinho
Tuvalu

Em termos quantitativos (do número de pessoas vivendo nos países considerados) não há significativa alteração no quadro com a introdução desses pequenos países. A lista dos países – não plenamente, mas aceitavelmente – democráticos subiria, no entanto, para 47:

01. Alemanha ||
02. Andorra
03. Austrália ||
04. Áustria ||
05. Bahamas
06. Barbados
07. Bélgica |||
08. Cabo Verde |||
09. Canadá ||
10. Chile |||
11. Chipre |||
12. Costa Rica |||
13. Dinamarca ||
14. Eslováquia |||
15. Eslovênia |||
16. Espanha ||
17. Estados Unidos ||
18. Estônia |||
19. Finlândia ||
20. França |||
21. Holanda ||
22. Ilhas Marshall
23. Irlanda ||
24. Islândia ||
25. Itália |||
26. Japão |||
27. Kiribati
28. Liechtenstein
29. Lituânia |||
30. Luxemburgo ||
31. Malta ||
32. Mauricio
33. Micronésia
34. Noruega ||
35. Nova Zelândia ||
36. Palau
37. Polônia |||
38. Portugal |||
39. Reino Unido ||
40. República Checa |||
41. Santa Lúcia
42. São Marinho
43. São Vicente e Granadinas
44. Suécia ||
45. Suíça ||
46. Tuvalu
47. Uruguai

O problema, como sempre, são os critérios. Para classificar regimes políticos (sem contrabandos introduzidos por variáveis contaminadas por indicadores sócio-econômicos) deveríamos adotar outros critérios, baseados em indicadores propriamente políticos de Liberdade, Eletividade, Publicidade (ou Transparência), Rotatividade (ou Alternância), Legalidade e Institucionalidade – para usar os critérios de Sir Ralph Dahrendorf da legitimidade democrática. Infelizmente, ainda não temos nenhum levantamento desse tipo (embora tenhamos feito alguns ensaios não-conclusivos sobre o tema). Fiquemos, por hora, com o que está disponível.

Tomemos os países que figuram no Quadrante D do mapa Inglehart-Welzel acima:

Alemanha
Austrália
Bélgica
Croácia
Dinamarca
Eslovênia
Espanha
Finlândia
França
Holanda
Islândia
Itália
Japão
Luxemburgo
Noruega
Nova Zelândia
Reino Unido
República Checa
Suécia
Suíça

CONSTATAÇÃO 1 | Com exceção da Croácia, todos figuram na lista dos 49 países aceitavelmente democráticos (incluindo os pequenos países e as ilhas).

Consideremos, em sequência, a lista dos países que figuram no Quadrante A do mapa Inglehart-Welzel:

África do Sul
Argélia
Bangladesh
Burkina Faso
Egito
Etiópia
Gana
Guatemala
India
Indonesia
Irã
Iraque
Jordãnia
Mali
Mali
Marrocos
Paquistão
Polônia
Romênia
Ruanda
Tailândia
Tanzânia
Turquia
Uganda
Vietnam
Zambia
Zimbabue

Comparemos essa lista com a lista das ditaduras (ou autocracias), que são estimadas em 51 pela FH (que as classifica como not-free countries) e também, coincidentemente, 51 pela EIU (denominadas de authoritarian regimes). Levando em conta os critérios dahrendorfianos (adaptados pelo autor) da legitimidade democrática (mencionados acima), esse número subiria para 60:

01. Afeganistão
02. Angola
03. Arábia Saudita
04. Argélia
05. Azerbaidjão
06. Barein
07. Belarus
08. Brunei
09. Burkina Faso
10. Burma (Mianmar)
11. Camarões
12. Camboja
13. Cazaquistão
14. Chade
15. China
16. Comoros
17. Congo (Kinshasa | Brazzaville)
18. Coréia do Norte
19. Costa do Marfim
20. Cuba
21. Djibuti
22. Egito
23. Emirados Árabes Unidos
24. Eritreia
25. Etiópia
26. Fiji
27. Gabão
28. Gâmbia
29. Guine
30. Guiné Equatorial
31. Guiné-Bissau
32. Irã
33. Jordan
34. Kuwait
35. Laos
36. Líbia
37. Madagascar
38. Marrocos
39. Nigéria
40. Omã
41. Palestina (Faixa de Gaza sob controle do Hamas)
42. Qatar
43. República Centro Africana
44. República Democrática do Congo
45. Ruanda
46. Rússia
47. Síria
48. Somália
49. Suazilândia
50. Sudão
51. Sudão do Sul
52. Tajiquistão
53. Togo
54. Turcomenistão
55. Turquia
56. Uzbequistão
57. Venezuela
58. Vietnam
59. Yemen
60. Zimbábue

CONSTATAÇÃO 2 | A comparação dos países que figuram no Quadrante A (Inglehart-Welzel) com a lista das autocracias acima (que vamos chamar de lista Dahrendorf-Franco, hehe), revela que quase todos os países onde valores tradicionais predominam sobre valores racionais e onde valores de sobrevivência predominam sobre valores de auto-expressão são ditaduras (com exceção de África do Sul, Bangladesh, Gana, Guatemala, Iraque, Mali, Paquistão, Polônia, Romênia, Tailândia, Tanzânia, Uganda e Zâmbia).

É claro que esta última comparação, assim como todas as demais feitas aqui – não custa frisar – têm somente efeitos demonstrativos, não analíticos, já que não se pode comparar levantamentos realizados com critérios distintos e, no caso, inclusive com universos distintos. Tratam-se apenas de apontamentos para começar uma investigação. O objetivo deste artigo é mostrar que um mapa cultural não consegue fugir muito de qualquer mapa da democracia (ou da autocracia). As razões para tanto deverão ser discutidas em outro trabalho.

 

 

 

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