10 PONTOS

,

Decifrando a via neopopulista

Por que o neopopulismo não pode ser barrado apenas pelas urnas

1 – A via neopopulista é a manipulação do processo eleitoral para impedir a rotatividade (ou alternância) democrática.

2 – No limite, ela pode fraudar as eleições, sim, mas o que ela quer é tornar desnecessária inclusive a fraude pelo uso da democracia contra a democracia, com o aparelhamento e a degeneração das instituições e a mesmerização das massas a partir de um líder com alta gravitatem.

3 – Onde a via neopopulista se consolidou é muito difícil removê-la eleitoralmente.

4 – Nem sempre dá certo, é claro. Na Argentina, não deu, porque faltou enraizamento social (havia contradições na sua base sindical de apoio) e porque a líder (Cristina Kirchner) era fraca. Além disso, a tradição do velho populismo peronista, por incrível que pareça, de certo modo dificultou o novo projeto neopopulista de estilo bolivariano (não, populismo e neopopulismo não são a mesma coisa). O kirchnerismo, se não era mais um peronismo clássico, também não chegou a ser um bolivarianismo, como o chavismo e nem mesmo como o lulopetismo.

5 – Em todos os outros lugares nos quais a via neopopulista se implantou suficientemente, foi impossível barrá-la somente pelas urnas. No Brasil também seria: não fossem as ruas, Dilma ainda estaria no governo e seria substituída por Lula. Se Dilma tivesse mais dois anos de mandato – decisivos para consolidar o projeto petista – o PT continuaria no governo: até 2018 e muito além.

6 – Assim, Rafael Correa, depois de ficar 10 anos no governo do Equador, foi substituído agora (com fraude ou não) por um Lenin Moreno (cujo nome já é uma revelação), mas seria sucedido por qualquer outro bolivariano. O mesmo ocorre com Evo Morales, na Bolívia e com Daniel Ortega na Nicarágua: ou eles não sairão do poder ou serão substituídos por outros partidários do bolivarianismo.

7 – A via neopopulista se aproveita de uma falha estrutural da democracia representativa: a falta de proteção eficaz contra o uso da democracia (notadamente das eleições) contra a própria democracia. A “metodologia” é simples:

Fase 1) um líder carismático – neopopulista – vence as eleições;

Fase 2) o líder neopopulista se reelege pela primeira vez;

Fase 3) o governo controlado pelo partido do líder neopopulista conquista maioria no parlamento (se não pelas urnas, alugando parlamentares com expedientes como o mensalão, pressionando-os com os chamados movimentos sociais que atuam como correias de transmissão do partido oficial ou coagindo-os com processos mafiosos de intimidação);

Fase 4) tendo maioria congressual, o governo neopopulista promove uma alteração da Constituição para poder obter mais mandatos sucessivos; ou

Fase 5) o líder neopopulista fabrica um sucessor (como fez Lula com Dilma, Correa com Moreno, mais ou menos repetindo o esquema que Putin operou com Medvedev);

Fase 6) o líder neopopulista (ou seu sucessor fabricado) fica no governo tempo suficiente para fazer maioria em todas as instituições decisivas para manter uma correlação de forças favorável ao seu projeto (em especial nos tribunais superiores e, se der, nas Forças Armadas e no aparato de segurança do Estado; em alguns casos funda guardas pretorianas e organiza milícias);

Fase 7) o governo neopopulista estabelece um controle partidário-governamental sobre a mídia e a internet.

8 – Chegado a esse ponto, dificilmente tal governo neopopulista será removido pelas urnas. Não porque fraudará os resultados eleitorais (só o fará em último caso), mas porque tudo foi desenhado para que não seja mais necessário cometer esse tipo de fraude tosca.

9 – Usar as eleições contra a democracia é um modo de se vacinar contra resultados desfavoráveis das urnas. É um ataque direto ao coração da democracia. Mas o caminho do neopopulismo é autocratizar a democracia, não de uma vez, por meio de um golpe clássico de Estado ou a partir de um movimento brusco de força e sim pouco a pouco, pela via eleitoral: degenerando as instituições da democracia representativa, violando a legalidade (as normas do Estado de direito), abolindo a rotatividade (ou alternância), suprimindo a publicidade (ou transparência) para, por último, restringir as liberdades. O neopopulismo latino-americano inaugurou assim uma nova geração de golpes de Estado (o golpe em doses homeopáticas).

10 – O objetivo do projeto neopopulista é conquistar hegemonia sobre a sociedade a partir do Estado aparelhado pelo partido, para nunca mais sair do governo.

 

 

 

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