Trump populista Face

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O populismo de Trump vai nos levar para o passado

Trump surgiu na mais recente onda populista que começa a varrer o mundo nesta segunda década do século 21. Como escreveu Moisés Naím (2017), no seu excelente Manual do populismo:

“O populismo não é uma ideologia. É uma estratégia para alcançar e conservar o poder. Ele sempre existiu, mas nos últimos anos ressurgiu com uma força potencializada pela internet e pelas frustrações de sociedades angustiadas com as mudanças, a precariedade econômica e uma ameaçadora insegurança sobre o que o futuro lhes reserva. Uma das surpresas do populismo é como seus ingredientes são comuns apesar de os líderes que o praticam e os países onde se impõem serem muito diferentes. O populismo hoje reina na Rússia de Vladimir Putin e nos Estados Unidos de Donald Trump, na Turquia de Recep Tayyip Erdogan e na Hungria de Viktor Orban, entre muitos outros”.

Sim, muitos outros. Enrique Krauze (2006), no seu não menos excelente Os dez mandamentos do populismo, analisou a onda anterior da ascensão do neopopulismo latinoamericano, na primeira década deste século. Krauze escreveu sob o impacto do florescimento do chavismo. Mas talvez devêssemos caracterizar os diferentes bolivarianismos que surgiram na esteira do chavismo e foram, na verdade, urdiduras castristas, como neopopulismos (o lulopetismo, o kirchnerismo, o evoismo, o correismo, o orteguismo ou sandinismo reciclado et coetera). O neopulismo é um pouco diferente do populismo clássico, ainda que repaginado, examinado por Naím. Ele tem mais raízes ideológicas – fincadas no marxismo-leninismo e numa mistura grossa de maquiavelismo e gramscismo produzida nas universidades – do que o populismo de Trump, Putin, Erdogan e Orban.

Avaliamos, no início do ano passado, que o espaço para o neopopulismo estava se fechando na América Latina. Mas o artigo de Naím mostra que no cenário mundial atual ainda há muito espaço para o populismo clássico. De um ponto de vista estritamente político, esses comportamentos políticos (que chamamos de populismo e neopopulismo) são muito semelhantes: trata-se de uma estratégia para conquistar e reter o poder nas mãos de um líder ou de um grupo por tempo indeterminado. E ainda desse ponto de vista suas consequências são semelhantes: como disse Krauze, seu efeito inevitável é subverter a democracia.

Examinemos o populismo de Trump, para quem a democracia não é um valor.

Trump reiterou que “respeita” Vladimir Putin e convidou os que o qualificam de “assassino” a moderar essa opinião. Ele disse ainda que “é melhor se entender com a Rússia do que o contrário. E se a Rússia nos ajuda a combater o EI (grupo extremista Estado Islâmico) e o terrorismo islâmico ao redor do mundo, isso é uma coisa boa”. Quando questionado sobre os supostos vínculos de Putin com a morte extrajudicial de jornalistas e dissidentes, Trump convidou os americanos a um exame de consciência. “Há muitos assassinos, temos muitos assassinos. Você acha que o nosso país é tão inocente?”, disse Trump.

Ora, é claro que existem assassinos em todo lugar. Mas uma ditadura, comandada por um governo de assassinos da FSB (ex-KGB) – que usa a execução de opositores como método – é outra coisa. Uma democracia não pode compactuar com métodos despóticos, como os da autocracia russa, nem mesmo em nome do combate ao Estado Islâmico. O expansionismo russo, com suas tentativas de reeditar a guerra fria, fazendo o mundo retrogradar para a política de blocos dos anos 60, é tão perigoso para a democracia e para a paz mundial quanto o crescimento do jihadismo ofensivo islâmico.

O que muitos não entendem é que guerra fria não é paz: guerra fria é guerra, ou seja, um engendramento estatista que constrói e mantém inimigos como pretexto para reorganizar cosmos sociais sob padrões hierárquicos regidos por dinâmicas autocráticas. Na guerra fria, a democracia dança (talvez até mais rapidamente do que num conflito armado com uma ditadura)!

O jihadismo ofensivo islâmico é uma ameaça gravíssima, no médio e longo prazos. Mas o putinismo não é menos grave. São ameaças distintas, por certo. Tirando-se, porém, a região do Oriente Médio e um ou outro local isolado, o islamismo não ameaça, no curto prazo, as chamadas democracias ocidentais. Nem mesmo ameaça as grandes ditaduras orientais, como Rússia e China. Ações terroristas podem, sim, matar milhares de pessoas, mas não podem – no curto prazo – derrubar governos na maior parte do mundo e, muito menos, instalar regimes ditatoriais (a não ser os que forem instalados sob o pretexto da necessidade de se defender do islamismo: eis o perigo da aliança Trump-Putin e dos argumentos delinquentes que a sustentam).

Repetindo. O jihadismo ofensivo islâmico é uma ameaça real e perigosíssima, mas é uma ameaça de mais longo prazo do que o putinismo, que pode, de uma hora para outra, redividir o mundo em blocos. Se Putin conseguir aliados em um grande país europeu (como a França, com Le Pen, por exemplo) e retomar a Ucrânia, países adjacentes e ex-colônias da ex-URSS, além de ditaduras e protoditaduras no Oriente Médio (Síria, Irã), na África (vários) e na América Latina e no Caribe (Venezuela, Nicarágua, Bolívia, Equador, El Salvador, Cuba) – sob o olhar complacente, leniente e conivente dos USA de Trump – o mundo caminhará rapidamente para uma configuração de blocos.

Trump é um perigo. Sobretudo porque, para ele, a democracia não é um valor. Ele sonha com o mundo de 1984 de George OrwellAmerica First significa: “cada um cuide do seu”, enquanto nós – os grandes – vamos (pensa ele) botar ordem na casa (cada qual na sua casa, claro), impedindo, porém, qualquer aventureiro de entrar no condomínio dos dominantes.

No mundo imaginado por Trump, Oceânia (USA), Eurásia (Rússia) e Lestásia (China) vão se amar e se odiar num estado permanente de guerra fria, mas vão reorganizar o cenário internacional, transformando os demais atores em súditos dos megablocos de poder. Serão todos inimigos entre si, é claro, mas na base do equilíbrio competitivo, inimigos cuidadosamente mantidos, de vez que aliados tácitos contra qualquer emergência globalizante, contra a fragmentação que os transforme em pares dos demais (com destaque para as grandes democracias da América, como o Canadá; da Europa, como Reino Unido e Alemanha; da real Oceania, como a Austrália; e até da Asia, como o Japão).

1984 mapa

Sim, Trump é uma reação do mundo único contra o estilhaçamento provocado pela emergência de uma sociedade-em-rede, do localismo conservador e não-cosmopolita contra a globalização (que os trumpistas chamam de globalismo). Putin já topou a parada. Não fosse a China (que não está muito disposta a entrar nesse jogo, sobretudo porque acha que ele não é bom para os negócios) e as menos de 40 democracias (plenas ou aceitáveis – e é preciso ficar de olho na França: das grandes, o elo mais fraco neste momento) que resistem, o mundo retrogradaria em marcha-batida para os anos 60 do século 20. O populismo de Trump, se bem sucedido, vai nos levar para algum lugar do passado.

Qual é o problema? O problema é que seria um mundo com menos democracias e menos democrático. Os trumpistas não estão nem aí para isso. Entre a ordem (imposta top down) e a liberdade, eles não hesitam em ficar com a primeira. Os trumpistas só têm, na verdade, um problema: eles se deixam seduzir pelo populismo porque, tal como Trump, jamais se converteram à democracia.

 

 

 

339 Comments

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  16. What is this anti-American crap? You think we should go back to being in the British Empire? We’re the greatest country in the world! Other nations should be in OUR Empire. We should have never rebelled? Look at England now, you want us to be like that? The American People (and by this i mean descendants of immigrants before the Irish, Italians, and other muds) are the greatest, most intelligent, most warlike people in the world. Only a half Jew elite could say such American hating nonsense as you do.

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  21. Perdon, siento como que mi último comentario estuvo un poco grosero ¿no? en verdad lo siento, no fue mi intención… Lo que quería decir es que, como dijo KhrisTinna, nadie nace con la habilidad de escribir, pero esa habilidad siempre se puede ir mejorando, es decir, que yo siento que esta escritora tiene muuuuuucho para dar, y con un poco de ingenio y dedicación puedes llegar a tener muuuuuucho exito!!! (por eso el “Mucha Suerte”jajajaja)

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  33. The SPLC is a hate group. They hate Whites.The latinos that scream racist are themselves racists.This is how projection works. The perpetrator takes their own twisted thoughts and motivations and accuses others of being so driven.Projection like this is one manifestation of “deep psychological and ethnic commitment”.

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  49. Thanks for the post-someone sent me the Times article and I hadn’t a chance to read it. Although I have to say-the one thought that popped into my head was “what would my children do if I threw them in the middle of a Shamanistic ritual?” I honestly think they would scream in fright…Thankfully, we haven’t planned any Mongolian adventures…

  50. Bin seit 3,5 Jahren zufriedene Kundin bei Fielmann. Die haben mir zum ersten mal im Leben die richtigen Gläser angepasst! Eine gute Firma. Deine Brille ist total schick!:)

  51. Foarte frumoase muzica, si visele, si imaginile…E pacat – imi dau seama – ca uneori uit sau nu mai apuc sa mai vizes. Am sa incerc de acum, sa ma opresc din treburile zilei, pt o clipita de visare.je

  52. O,you clever crafty minx!!! That collar is something special!!EEeek!And of course I adore that chrysanthenem!!!Mmmmmyummy!The purple vest & purpley print maxi are divine on you!!I'm feeling a bit rough myself this morning,but hope I can manage to look as fab as you!LOVE Helga xxxXXXxxx

  53. Olinda:Foi pena!Exactamente por suspeitar de que a divulgação possa não ter sido a mais adequada é que não critiquei "os setubalenses", mas sim aqueles que, sabendo, não ligaram à coisa.Isto, porque acredito que mesmo que a AJA apenas tenha informado os associados… c'os diabos, eles hão de ser mais que aqueles! :-) :-) :-)Seja como for, não faltarão ocasiões… que eu tratarei de anunciar ruidosamente aqui no blog.Abreijos.

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  58. Zoti Rama ne nuk kemi asnje detyrim ndaj atyre familjeve qe jane ne zonat e izoluara.ato ti ndihmoje saliu i tyre se vete e kane vene kryeminister ose te zejne mend per zgjedhjet e ardhshme.

  59. Mmm, deilig!!Var forresten pÃ¥ galleriet forrige tirsdag. Reiste nedover pÃ¥ Bruce Springsteen-konsert men sov bare en natt i Bergen. Aldri vært der pÃ¥ sommeren før – for en utrolig fin by! MÃ¥ tilbake en gang:)Ha en flott kveldKlem fra Kristin

  60. I have a Sabre 40 with Zeus pod drives. I have been told that the 8 hoses are under “watch” and should be replaced and that Cummins will do that at their expense. Please let me know how I should go about that.

  61. Så aktiv du är och så mycket roligt din familj hinner göra denna sommar. Du är alldeles fantastisk!Själv hinner jag inte ens en bråkdel och ändå är jag betydligt friskare.Ha en fortsatt fin tid med dina kära. Många varma styrkekramar och tankar sänder jag dig.

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  66. Both those smoothies over on Bon Appetit look so good! And, I happen to have all the ingredients around, so I’ll have to try them soon. Thanks for a great collection of recipes!

  67. I just finished reading it and have plans to purchase the sequel ‘The Darkly Luminous Fight for Persephone Parker’. I’m terribly tempted to buy it now and begin reading it right away! lol

  68. El sentimiento es mutuo Mens, siempre es un gusto leerte, también a otros por ahí, siempre dejando esa sensación de que no sueltas todo lo que sabes, omitiendo contar lo que antes divulgabas y uno queda con ganas de saber más.

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  70. perché io ero arrivato prima e avevo fatto sopralluogo. Inoltre l'albergo Eden non ha nessuna security, né l'avevano gli ufosciechimichecerchinelgran-isti.È il resoconto fatto sul convegno la indispose leggerissimamente :-PSi alternarono momenti di pazzo divertimento a noia da svenarsi.

  71. quand davydenko joue bien c’est quand même un super joueur, il contre à merveille long de ligne ou court croisé, je suis contente qu’il ait scalpé quelques tops pour se faire un beau palmarès…par contre aujourd’hui le service passe par le bon et le mauvais !quelle flopée de doubles !je ne le sens pas jo, ou alors davy va s’autodétruire sur la fin du match, parce que là, il n’arrive plus à faire la différence jowi, ce qui est très embêtant après avoir raté autant de balles de break !boutter serre les dents, j’en suis sûre !

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