conjuntura

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Por que não é tão fácil analisar a conjuntura

Em todo lugar, à esquerda e à direita (para quem acredita nisso), as pessoas se metem a analisar a conjuntura. Em geral essas análises são autocráticas, na medida em que são feitas para corroborar uma tática já formulada, consoante à estratégia de grupos políticos hierarquizados que precisam justificar suas ações com base em algum estudo da realidade. Já sabemos onde queremos chegar e o que devemos fazer para tanto, só nos falta agora obrigar a realidade a se encaixar no esquema: é assim que aparecem as análises de conjuntura feitas por agentes de organizações piramidais.

Um outro motivo pelo qual as análises são autocráticas já foi comentado com mais profundidade no texto Inteligência Democrática, que deu origem a este site Dagobah. Vale a pena ler antes de continuar.

Mas há um terceiro motivo, (só aparentemente) mais banal. É difícil mesmo decifrar os interesses e os desejos dos atores, sobretudo explicar os seus comportamentos vinculando-os a projetos formulados (como costumam tentar fazer os analistas, sobretudo no campo da chamada esquerda). Muitas vezes não há projetos (a não ser que queiramos falar de projetos inconscientes, que as pessoas teriam por pertencer a uma classe, sem sequer saber que eles existem – o que é uma construção metafísica que devemos ao marxismo). E nem sempre esses comportamentos derivam de escolhas racionais: muitos agentes são levados a fazer tal ou qual coisa em virtude da forma como o ambiente em que interagem está configurado e não por seleção (individual) de preferências. Aliás, se não fosse assim não poderia haver política democrática. Não haveria espaço para a mudança, para a persuasão, para o contínuo realinhamento de posições. Seria uma guerra de robôs ou de borgs. Em poucas e definitivas palavras: o sistema é complexo!

Vamos tomar como exemplo a conjuntura brasileira atual (no final de março de 2017). Podemos elencar aqui 10 pontos que são difíceis de entender:

1) A aliança Gilmar-Toffoli;

2) Reinaldo (Azevedo) ter virado um tipo de assessor de imprensa de Gilmar e defensor de ambos;

3) Temer não ter concluído uma despetização do Estado;

4) Temer querer conversar com Lula;

5) O MBL incluir na sua pauta a luta contra o Estatuto do Desarmamento;

6) Opositores do PT gritando “Fora Temer”;

7) Bolsonaristas colocando em risco o país ao acharem que podem vencer Lula em 2018;

8) Alguém ser bolsonarista;

9) Como alguém pode cair no truque da delação da Odebrecht (para dizer que tudo é caixa 2);

10) Emílio (Odebrecht) estar solto.

Alguém disse que o Brasil não é para amadores. Parece ser o caso. Não que não se possa explicar cada um desses pontos. Pode-se tentar explicá-los de vários modos. Mas as explicações, se forem exclusivamente racionais, não batem. É neste momento que surge a tentação de inventar uma teoria da conspiração para simplificar a análise. Alguém dirá que Reinaldo e Gilmar se venderam. Ou que Temer sempre esteve, por trás dos panos, fazendo um jogo duplo. Outros dirão que tudo não passa de uma estratégia bem-sucedida do PT de se livrar de Dilma para recolocar Lula na presidência. A imaginação e a tolice humanas não têm limites.

Teorias da conspiração, entretanto, não substituem análises. Em geral, elas conspiram contra as análises, sobretudo se forem análises de inteligência democrática. É sempre mais fácil trocar um esforço de desvendar as dinâmicas de um sistema complexo por hipóteses simples que não podem ser verificadas (quer dizer, falsificadas), do tipo: “Nós sabemos que o Toffoli recebe dinheiro de uma empresa de Gilmar Mendes”; ou “O bolsonarismo está sendo, no fundo, estimulado pelo lulopetismo, posto que Lula sabe que sua única chance de vencer a eleição de 2018 é tendo como adversário no segundo turno um maluco, fascista e bronco como Bolsonaro”; ou ainda “Emílio tem no bolso vários juízes do STF”. E por aí vai.

Os que se dizem de direita – em parte sob a influência do autocrata religioso e malfeitor ideológico Olavo de Carvalho – se especializaram nos últimos tempos em urdir hipóteses conspiracionistas. O besteirol quilométrico de alegações que compõem a explicação (na verdade, a legitimação) para a vitória de Trump é inigualável: Hillary seria uma agente da Arábia Saudita, Soros e os Clinton – em conluio com o comunismo internacional – estariam financiando uma nova ordem mundial para controlar todo o planeta, operada secretamente por organizações esotéricas apoiadas pelo Clube de Bilderberg e pela Comissão Trilateral e no núcleo mais oculto da conspiração estariam os… Illuminati. Outros acrescentam que tudo isso teria a ver com a disputa pela tecnologia da bomba de nêutrons (ou de raios gama) ou com a tentativa de apropriação de nossas reservas de Nióbio ou do nosso Pré-Sal (e aqui a esquerda e a direita se unem e se igualam na invencionice conspiracionista).

Pensar dói? Parece que não, mas a galera que substitui a análise pela invenção conspiracionista deve achar que sim.

Nem essa deve ser a explicação, todavia. É a mente autoritária, que não aceita o acaso (quer dizer, a liberdade), que acha que tudo que acontece deriva de uma ordem pré-existente, que precisa, desesperadamente, de explicações desse tipo. Ficar ao léu, tendo que palmilhar o caminho na escuridão, é insuportável para quem quer a segurança de um mundo completamente organizado desde o princípio até o final. Os sofrimentos da jornada serão recompensados quando a ordem que criou tudo isso confirmar os que estão no bom caminho, combatendo o bom combate.

Como viver sem essa esperança? As coisas precisam fazer sentido. E se alguém disser – repetindo o princípio democrático – que o sentido é a liberdade, que o sentido é não ter um sentido determinado, que o sentido é sempre poder escolher o sentido… aí bate aquele desespero! A mente autoritária quebra, explode, esfacela, estilhaça, não suporta tal hipótese.

 

 

 

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