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Riscos associados aos processos de autocratização

A democracia não tem a ver apenas com o sistema representativo, quer dizer, com o modo político de administração do Estado e com o funcionamento dos poderes constituídos, que vige em parte dos países que adotaram a democracia dos modernos. Alterações no processo de democratização afetam a vida cotidiana de cada um de nós, interferem na estrutura e na dinâmica de nossas empresas e organizações e perturbam a convivência social como um todo, causando deformações nos fluxos interativos. Pode-se dizer que quando a democracia está ameaçada todas as nossas atividades livres, sejam políticas, sociais ou mercantis, são perturbadas.

Uma análise de inteligência democrática é capaz de identificar riscos econômicos e sociais, políticos e institucionais, associados a processos de autocratização da democracia.

Os riscos econômicos e sociais compreendem aqueles que: afetam negativamente a segurança jurídica; aumentam os graus de incerteza dos investimentos e os custos de transação; dilapidam o capital social ou verticalizam as redes (diminuindo a confiança ampliada socialmente e a disposição social favorável à cooperação em razão da instalação de clima adversarial ou da adoção de comportamentos políticos patrimonialistas e paternalistas, clientelistas e centralizadores, ligados ao aumento da intervenção do Estado na economia e na sociedade e/ou à captura do Estado por grupos que privatizam a esfera pública); deformam os ambientes sociais diminuindo a interatividade e, consequentemente, a inovatividade das organizações; e aumentam as chances de risco sistêmico (iminência de colapso ou perda continua de sustentabilidade pela queda simultânea da produtividade e da inovatividade).

Dentre os riscos políticos e institucionais podem ser identificadas as possibilidades de autocratização do regime e a perda de legitimidade da democracia com a violação dos critérios democráticos básicos: da liberdade; da transparência ou publicidade (inviabilizando ou reduzindo as possibilidades de exercício da accountability); da eletividade (incluindo fraudes no processo eleitoral, abuso do poder econômico ou político e financiamento ilegal de campanhas); da rotatividade ou alternância; da legalidade (sobretudo em razão de corrupção sistêmica); e da institucionalidade (degeneração, aparelhamento e perda de credibilidade das instituições).

Além desses são identificáveis também, por uma análise de inteligência democrática, os riscos críticos à democracia já classicamente considerados: de crise político-institucional acompanhada da perversão da política democrática como arte da guerra (realpolitik exacerbada) com perda da governabilidade; de derruição do Estado democrático de direito (por efeito de golpe de Estado ou de outro processo extra-legal que altere substantivamente o regime democrático representativo formal transformando-o em uma protoditadura ou ditadura); de crise social, acompanhada de impossibilidade de governança, com grave ameaça à paz social; e de guerra (sobretudo de guerra civil).

As consequências das alterações no modo de regulação democrático são tão graves que justificam um acompanhamento permanente da evolução da conjuntura política, devendo fazer parte das tarefas de qualquer empreendedor empresarial ou social, de qualquer organização, de qualquer governo e, no limite, de qualquer pessoa envolvida em um projeto coletivo.

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